Probability and conjecture

Use in the book

Textual criticism supplies a positive use of uncertainty. Burton invokes Cicero’s consolation as a model for writing through grief, then interrupts the example: perhaps the work circulating under Cicero’s name is an imposture, as Lipsius suspects “probably.” The modern rendering, “with good reason,” makes the adverb’s force clear. Learned commentators likewise conjecture that Helen’s celebrated restorative bowl contained borage. Conjecture names their learned identification; it does not turn a proposed ancient ingredient into an established recipe.

Geographical inquiry makes probability productive rather than merely dismissive. Burton asks which polar route is “likeliest,” whether there is any “likelihood” of a passage, and whether any “probability” remains of reaching China by Anian. His own preference is stated within an open question. A proposed southern land is first compared with imaginary discoveries, then entertained as something that “in likelihood... may be so.” The English margin on springs similarly proposes an outlet from the Caspian into other seas. These are degrees of expectation within inquiry, not reports that every imagined connection has been surveyed.

Astronomical argument also permits both preference and reserve. Burton calls a rotating earth that remains central “more probable,” distinguishing it from the triple-motion account immediately described. Elsewhere rival celestial explanations are “but conjectures.” Burton’s margin attributed to Kepler uses summâ probabilitate to claim the greatest probability for planetary inhabitants from the arrangement of planets and their attendants. The supplied editorial note finds that this margin combines separate arguments, rather than reproducing one continuous verbatim passage from Kepler. The body has begun by granting a supposition about the earth’s motion; neither that grant nor the confident Latin phrase is a report of observing inhabitants.

Medicine shows the danger of letting conjecture outrun its grounds. Cotta’s physician conjectures sciatica where the woman is expressly said to have been free of it; Burton then attributes the later attack to the effect of his words. The anecdote illustrates his account of imagination, not a vindication of the initial diagnosis. In another sequence, medicine is denounced as “wholly conjecturall,” uncertain and imperfect, but Burton subsequently calls these carping arguments and distinguishes abuse from proper use. His criticism of costly “conjecturall medicines” likewise leads to praise of cultivating imported plants. The objections and the ensuing defences must remain together.

The best conjectures about love can be ordinary inferences from speech, glances and gestures, not revelations. The original margin attributed to Aeneas Sylvius gives a different route: “ego de me facio conjecturam,” judging from one’s own case. Astrological prediction is expressly lowered from decree to conjecture so that readers need not be distressed by it: the stars incline but do not compel. Astrology already owns the full magistrate-decrees comparison and the probable conjecture about jealousy (non sunt prætoriana decreta and probable conjecture); Divination owns the palm-readers’ conjecturing construction. Those are existing explanations, not new discoveries here.

Credibility can be granted provisionally, withheld or mocked. Spirits are reported capable of probable conjecture through superior understanding; their supposed erotic relations receive only “some probability,” after repeated ifs and before an explicit denial by other writers. In the Apollonius story, probable conjectures become signs exposing the lamia, but the inference belongs to the reported narrative. An inspired prisoner’s story is “all out as probable” as Er, Ulysses’ tales and Lucian’s True History: equality here is sarcastic depreciation, not joint endorsement. The word probable alone cannot settle the speaker’s valuation.

Social and religious arguments use the same vocabulary without the same result. “All probability and necessity” intensifies the complaint that poverty corrupts clerical careers. Arguments tolerating brothels are “probable” as policy but opposed in religion. Alleged probable tests for recognizing heretics are turned against their accusers. In consolation, however, finding “no likelihood” of spiritual change is explicitly not a reason to conclude oneself rejected: the sufferer is told to wait rather than transform present non-perception into a final sentence. Probability may therefore qualify a prediction, sharpen polemic, or help block a despairing inference.

Related entries

Demonstration and proof: asserted establishment, investigation and experience.

Opinion: belief, assessment and reputation.

Authority: testimony and the standing of its source.

Paradox: disagreement with received opinion is not the same as low probability.

Hypothesis and Earth’s motion: the suppositions and cosmological alternatives.

Astrology and Divination: existing predictions, signs and non-compulsion routes.

Experimental: trials and the later defence of imported-plant cultivation.

Policy: civic calculation distinguished from religious approval.

Places to read

1. Democritus Junior to the Reader · paragraph 10Probably as well-grounded suspicion about authorship.
2. Subsection 2 A Digression on the Nature of Spirits Evil Angels or Devils and How They Cause Melancholy · paragraphs 14–16Probable conjecture assigned to spirits after a sceptical narrative transition.
3. Subsection 2. The Power of Imagination · paragraphs 22–24Prediction, mistaken diagnosis and the claimed effects of imagination.
4. Subsection 15 Love of Learning or Excessive Study With a Digression on the Misery of Scholars and Why the Muses Are Melancholy · paragraph 4Probability intensified into necessity in the complaint about clerical poverty.
5. Member 3. Air Corrected. With a Digression on Air · paragraphs 18–22Promising routes, possible passage and a conjectured southern land.
6. Member 3. Air Corrected. With a Digression on Air · paragraph 29Original English marginal likelihood of hidden water passages.
7. Member 3. Air Corrected. With a Digression on Air · paragraph 15Competing celestial explanations called only conjectures.
8. Member 3. Air Corrected. With a Digression on Air · paragraphs 11–20A comparatively probable model and the marginal inference of planetary inhabitants.
9. Member 1 Subsection 1 Medical Treatment by Medicines · paragraphs 15–24Medicine called conjectural, followed by a defence distinguishing use from abuse.
10. Subsection 2 Simple Remedies Suited to Melancholy Against Imported Simples · paragraphs 38–44Speculative imported medicines and the subsequent praise of cultivation.
11. Section 2 Member 1, Subsection 1 Love Melancholy: Its Ancestry, Power and Reach · paragraphs 51–58Conditional probability, dissent and a literary lamia’s exposure.
12. Subsection 2 How Love Tyrannizes Over Human Beings. Love, or Heroical Melancholy: Its Definition and the Part Affected · paragraphs 47–49Marginal inference from one’s own experience of love.
13. Member 4 Subsection 1 Symptoms or Signs of Love Melancholy in Body and Mind Good and Bad Signs and So Forth · paragraph 1The best conjectures drawn from observable conduct.
14. Subsection 5 The Last and Best Cure for Love Melancholy Is to Let Lovers Have Their Desire · paragraphs 3–6Predictions as conjectures, not compelling decrees.
15. Prevention Before or After Marriage: Plato’s Community of Wives; Marrying a Courtesan; Love Potions; Brothels; Marrying Someone Equal in Age and Fortune, From a Good Family, Well Educated and of Good Standing; Treating Wives Well; and So On · paragraph 52Plausible policy arguments opposed on religious grounds.
16. Causes of Religious Melancholy. From the Devil, Through Miracles, Apparitions and Oracles. His Instruments or Agents: Politicians, Priests, Impostors, Heretics and Blind Guides. In Them: Credulity, Fear, Blind Zeal, Ignorance, Solitude, Curiosity, Pride, Vanity, Presumption and So On. His Devices: Fasting, Solitude, Hope, Fear and the Rest · paragraphs 18–21Ironic comparison of visionary narratives with fiction.
17. Treatment of Despair Through Medicine, Good Counsel, Consolation, and So On · paragraphs 3–8No inward sign yet: the refusal of a despairing conclusion.

In this edition

“Probably suspects” becomes “suspects with good reason”; “best conjectures” becomes “best inferences”; and “some probable conjectures” becomes “certain plausible indications” in the lamia story. The latter shifts emphasis to the signs supporting the inference. “Conjecturall medicines” becomes “speculative medicines,” while “as he conjectured” is recast as “he thought” within the physician’s reported speech. The modern words make local force visible without declaring all conjectures equally weak or equally persuasive.

Likely becomes “usually” for the sea lights and “apparently” for Antepheron’s reported double; likeliest becomes “most promising” for a route. Likelihood becomes “sign” in consolation. Latin probabilitate contributes probability, summâ its greatest degree, and facio conjecturam the act of making an inference. The compressed marginal probabilis is different: the supplied note glosses a probable or accepted opinion in a logical reference but leaves the printed diviso unresolved. That editorial explanation is not a complete original Latin sentence or proof that popular opinion must always be false.

probability

Plausibility, likelihood or a prospect that something may be true or possible; an assessment of grounds, not necessarily a numerical measure.

Grammar: singular noun.

Original text: “by all probability and necessity”. In the modern column: “in all probability and indeed inevitably”. The conjunction strengthens an accusation that clerical poverty forces people into corrupt practices. Burton rhetorically escalates likelihood into necessity; the passage is a complaint about the profession’s prospects, not a measured forecast.

Original text: “any probability to pass by the straights of Anian to China”. In the modern column: “any chance of passing through the Strait of Anian to China”. A possible navigable passage is the object of geographical inquiry. Whether and any leave it open; the surrounding map reports include the mistaken island-California claim.

Original text: “there is some probability for it”. In the modern column: “there is some probability in it”. Reported stories are offered as possible support for spirits’ erotic relations. Some probability follows repeated ifs; the next paragraph reports firm denial, and later anecdotes do not independently verify the supernatural claim.

probable

Plausible, persuasive or more likely to be true; an evaluative description whose force depends on comparison, speaker and sometimes irony.

Grammar: adjective; positive and comparative constructions.

Original text: “which is more probable”. In the modern column: “which is more probable”. Burton expressly prefers a rotating earth that remains at the centre over the immediately described threefold-motion model. The parenthesis states a comparative assessment within the survey, not an unconditional acceptance of the whole Copernican system.

Original text: “Many probable arguments”. In the modern column: “many plausible arguments”. Arguments for tolerating brothels are conceded persuasive force as policy. They are opponents’ arguments; Burton immediately opposes them in religion. Policy plausibility does not mean religious approval.

Original text: “all out as probable”. In the modern column: “every bit as probable”. Equal credibility with fantastic literary narratives is an ironic way of discrediting an inspired-prisoner story. The comparison runs through Er, Ulysses and Lucian’s deliberately fantastic True History; it does not mean Burton finds each likely true.

probably

With plausible grounds or likelihood; the adverb can characterize how well a suspicion or inference is supported.

Grammar: adverb.

Original text: “which Lipsius probably suspects”. In the modern column: “as Lipsius suspects with good reason”. The authenticity of the supposed Ciceronian consolation is questioned on grounds attributed to Lipsius. This modifies the warrant for suspecting, not merely Burton’s uncertainty whether Lipsius happens to suspect; the exact Lipsius discussion remains unlocated.

Original text: “can probably conjecture”. In the modern column: “can make likely conjectures”. Spirits are said to infer and foretell much through superior knowledge and experience. The claim is granted by cited theologians after Burton’s sceptical transition from a fabulous story; can and many do not entail omniscience. Probably contributes likely; conjecture is recast from verb to plural noun, and make is supplied to form the modern verbal construction.

conjecture

An inference, supposition or prediction made from indications without demonstrative certainty; sometimes the indications themselves are emphasized.

Grammar: singular and plural noun.

Original text: “but they be but conjectures”. In the modern column: “but they are only conjectures”. Rival explanations of celestial movements are reduced to an uncertain status. Clavius conjectures otherwise; the dismissive but applies after competing accounts rather than certifying one rival.

Original text: “by some probable conjectures”. In the modern column: “from certain plausible indications”. Apollonius infers the lamia’s identity from signs within the reported story. Burton tells a literary supernatural narrative; its asserted exposure and many-thousands audience are not independent testimony. Conjectures is rendered indications in this sentence, shifting emphasis from the inference to its grounds; probable contributes plausible.

Original text: “the best conjectures are taken from such symptomes”. In the modern column: “the best inferences come from the signs”. The preferred evidence of love is behaviour when both lovers are present. Speeches, glances and gestures are interpreted as revealing desire; best is a comparative ranking, not a universal diagnostic guarantee.

Original text: “they be but conjectures”. In the modern column: “they are only conjectures”. Astrological marriage predictions are denied the force of binding decrees. Yet let no man be troubled leads the distinction; stars incline but do not compel, and the ensuing verse preserves the rational soul’s freedom.

Original text: “probable conjectures”. In the modern column: “probable tests”. Criteria allegedly recognizing heretics are represented as signs or tentative tests. Burton turns the cited accusers’ criteria back against them; neither their labels nor his rejoinder become a neutral account of a religious group. Probable tests renders probable conjectures; the adjacent notable signs renders the separate more eminent notes, not conjectures alone.

conjecture: infer

Form a judgment or supposition from available signs or learning rather than established certainty.

Grammar: verb; present, third-person singular and past-tense forms.

Original text: “as he conjectured”. In the modern column: “he thought”. A physician’s mistaken diagnosis is represented as a supposition. The woman was expressly free of the disease before his words; Cotta’s story is used to argue imagination’s effects, not to validate the initial diagnosis. The original parenthetic as he conjectured is recast within who told her that he thought; thought supplies the conjecturing act.

Original text: “Clavius conjectures otherwise”. In the modern column: “Clavius conjectures otherwise”. A named astronomer offers a different speculative account. The succeeding only conjectures explicitly limits the epistemic force.

Original text: “as most of our Criticks conjecture”. In the modern column: “as most of our learned commentators conjecture”. Learned commentators infer that Helen’s restorative bowl contained borage. Most qualifies the reported commentators, and conjecture does not make the recipe identification secure.

conjectural

Dependent on uncertain inference or speculation; in these medical attacks it disparages insecure knowledge or remedies.

Grammar: adjective, printed conjecturall.

Original text: “is wholly conjecturall”. In the modern column: “is wholly conjectural”. The attack describes medicine as wholly uncertain and questions whether it is an art at all. At 099-22 Burton calls these carping and insulting arguments, distinguishes use from abuse and affirms medicine as noble; wholly belongs to the voiced attack.

Original text: “conjecturall medicines”. In the modern column: “speculative medicines”. Expensive imported remedies are contrasted with familiar garden herbs. The criticism is associated with Fuchs and qualified by proportionate preparation; 099-42–44 then praises cultivation of imported medicinal plants and their study.

likelihood

Plausibility or a prospect that something is so, can occur or may be found.

Grammar: singular noun; in likelihood construction.

Original text: “any likelihood of Buttons bay”. In the modern column: “any prospect of a passage by Button's Bay”. A route is assessed as a prospect rather than announced as a discovered passage. The modern column supplies passage from the navigational question, not as a literal part of likelihood.

Original text: “And yet in likelihood it may be so”. In the modern column: “Yet it may very probably be so”. A conjectured southern land is entertained after comparison with imaginary discoveries. Yet and may preserve a swing from scepticism to expectation; the supposed geography is not securely surveyed.

Original margin: “as in all likelihood the Caspian Sea vents it self into the Euxine or Ocean”. Supplied note translation or expansion: “just as, in all likelihood, the Caspian Sea empties itself into the Black Sea or the ocean”. The original English margin offers a likely hidden outlet as an analogy for underground water passages. The outlet is a historical supposition; its likelihood claim does not establish the geography. The original margin is already English; the supplied note modernizes it and identifies Euxine as Black Sea.

likelihood: sign

An apparent indication or sign that a hoped-for condition is present.

Grammar: singular noun under negation.

Original text: “findest no likelihood of it in thy self”. In the modern column: “find no sign of it in yourself”. The sufferer finds no inward indication of the hoped-for spiritual change. The counsel expressly forbids concluding reprobation from this present absence; yet and patiently wait are central.

likely

Probable or apparently so; in a comparative route-selection question, promising or apt to succeed.

Grammar: adverb and superlative adjective.

Original text: “likely saw”. In the modern column: “apparently saw”. The modern edition marks the report of seeing one’s double as apparent rather than certain. A story introduced through Donatus from Aristotle follows possible optical and imaginative causes; the exact reference remains uncollated.

Original text: “which is the likeliest way”. In the modern column: “which route is most promising”. The comparative asks which polar route offers the best prospect. Burton gives reasons for his own preference while framing all routes within an open whether question.

likely: usually

Ordinarily or as commonly happens, rather than a numerical estimate of the chance of a particular event.

Grammar: adverb.

Original text: “they do likely appear after a Sea storme”. In the modern column: “usually appear after a storm at sea”. The adverb describes the customary occasion of Saint Elmo’s fires. Burton’s ensuing traveller anecdote and its date remain distinct reported evidence; the form after in a storme is not silently regularized.

probabilitas

Probability or persuasive likelihood; summâ probabilitate intensifies the claimed strength of an inference.

Grammar: Latin noun; probabilitate, ablative singular in an adverbial phrase.

Component sense: summâ. Greatest or highest, intensifying probability rather than naming its object..

Component sense: probabilitate. Probability or likelihood; ablative singular of probabilitas..

Component access (summâ): Greatest, qualifying probabilitate; it does not mean the whole inference.

Original margin: “de eorum incolis summâ probabilitate concludimus”. Supplied note translation or expansion: “we conclude with the greatest probability that they have inhabitants”. Burton’s margin attributed to Kepler infers planetary inhabitants from planetary arrangement and satellites. The English body begins by granting a supposition about earth’s motion; this is a cited inference, not observation of inhabitants. An accompanying note explicitly finds that Burton’s margin combines separate arguments rather than reproducing one continuous verbatim passage from Kepler. Summâ gives greatest; probabilitate gives probability. The full local quotation supplies the conclusion, planetary inhabitants.

probabilis

Probable or accepted, here in a compressed marginal reference to the division of opinion in the Topics tradition.

Grammar: Latin adjective; printed probabilis within an unresolved abbreviated construction.

Original margin: “Patet ea diviso probabilis, &c.” Editorial explanatory gloss (not a sentence translation): “probable or accepted opinion”. The margin invokes a logical division while the body opposes popular and wise opinion. The note identifies diviso as the apparent printed reading and warns that Aristotle’s disagreement between opinions does not make popular opinion invariably false. The modern phrase is the supplied editor’s explanatory gloss, not a complete literal translation of the compressed Latin.

facio conjecturam

Make an inference or judgment; ego de me facio conjecturam means judging from one’s own case.

Grammar: Latin verbal construction; facio first-person singular present, conjecturam accusative singular object.

Component sense: conjecturam. An inference or judgment, the object of facio..

Component sense: facio. I make; the first-person verb combines with conjecturam to express making an inference..

Original margin: “ego de me facio conjecturam, quem amor in mille pericula misit.” Supplied note translation or expansion: “I judge by myself, whom love has sent into a thousand dangers.” The quoted voice generalizes from personal exposure to love’s dangers. Aeneas Sylvius is the marginal attribution; the claim broadens to all ranks while the body distinguishes especially young, idle and richly fed people. Facio conjecturam supplies make an inference or judge; de me gives from my own case, rendered by myself. It is not a claim that Burton personally lived the quoted experience.

Earlier explanation: probable conjecture

Earlier explanation: probable conjecture

For probable conjecture, the passage, the passage, see Astrology.

Earlier explanation: non sunt prætoriana decreta

Earlier explanation: non sunt prætoriana decreta

For non sunt prætoriana decreta, the passage, the passage, see Astrology.

Earlier explanation: Chiromantici

Earlier explanation: chiromanticus

For Chiromantici, the passage, the passage, see Divination.